The recent clashes in Aleppo have coincided with security tensions in Iran, sparked by confrontations between Iranian security forces and protesters, particularly in the Kurdish-majority western regions of the country.
In Syria, the Turkish political and military leadership (the Office of the Speaker of Parliament and the Ministry of Defense) has expressed an explicit readiness to provide operational support to the Syrian government in its engagements against the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) in Aleppo. The Turkish position is anchored in the principle of "Syrian territorial integrity" and the rejection of military dualism (the presence of two armed forces), while emphasizing the necessity of implementing the March 10, 2025, Agreement as the reference framework for future engagement.
Regarding the situation in Iran, Omer Celik, the spokesperson for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), stated: "Turkey does not wish to see the spread of chaos in Iran, despite some issues between society and the government." Celik emphasized that "foreign intervention will lead to worse consequences, and the intervention incited by Israel, in particular, will lead to greater crises."
Undoubtedly, the Turkish perspective on regional shifts is driven primarily by Turkish national security interests and, secondarily, by the impact of these shifts on Turkish influence in the region. Alongside material determinants, Turkish threat perceptions stem from a collective memory saturated with suspicion and wariness toward the outside world, shaped by painful historical experiences, resulting in what is known as the "Sèvres Syndrome."
The memories of the Treaty of Sèvres resonate deeply within the Turkish collective consciousness. History and experience have forged a deep-seated conviction among the Turkish elite—both secular and Islamist—that Western powers have never abandoned their schemes to partition Anatolia. They believe these powers consistently seek to support minorities—specifically the Kurds—to undermine the state from within, continuing the objectives set by the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres that dismantled the Ottoman Empire.
This syndrome has shaped a "Security Culture" based on several key pillars:
A. Fear of Partition: The "secessionist threat" sits at the apex of Turkish threat perceptions. Consequently, the Kurdish issue and its extensions in Syria are not viewed as a traditional terrorism file, but as an "ontological" (existential) threat to the identity and survival of the state. This perception has evolved to include what Ankara calls the "Terror Corridor" in northern Syria and Iraq. Turkish military doctrine holds that allowing a quasi-independent Kurdish entity on its southern border is not merely a tactical security threat, but a "geopolitical encirclement" aimed at isolating Turkey from the Middle East and tearing its internal demographic fabric.
B. Suspicion of Alliances: Even as a NATO member, Turkey deals with its Western allies (especially following the 2016 coup attempt) with extreme caution. It interprets any Western support for Kurdish units in Syria as part of a "grand conspiracy" targeting Turkish territorial integrity. The failed coup of July 15, 2016, constituted a "second foundational moment" for the Turkish Republic. The leadership in Turkey read the Western hesitation to condemn the coup in its early hours as tangible evidence confirming the "Sèvres Syndrome," leading to the merging of "internal threats" and "external threats" into a single category labeled the "Battle for Survival."
C. Priority of Internal Security: The entirety of Turkish foreign policy is engineered based on the requirements of maintaining the "unity of the central state." This is the primary driver justifying preemptive military intervention in northern Syria and Iraq to prevent the emergence of any geographically contiguous Kurdish entity, which is viewed as a "dagger" in Anatolia's southern flank.
Consequently, recent developments in which Kurds have played a central role have fueled Turkish fears regarding the collapse of the regime and the disintegration of Iranian geopolitics. Such a vacuum could allow armed Kurdish factions (such as PJAK and the KDP)—which reports suggest receive external intelligence support—to establish an autonomous entity in western Iran.
Based on the above, chaos in Iran constitutes a complex security dilemma for Turkey. The potential collapse of central authority in Tehran is not viewed as an inevitable geopolitical opportunity, but rather as a direct threat to Turkish national security. From the Turkish strategic perspective, this scenario would establish geographical contiguity between Kurdish influence zones in northeastern Syria, northern Iraq, and the Iranian heartland. Turkey considers this extension a strategic encirclement of its southern and eastern borders by hostile, Israeli-backed entities, posing a threat to Turkish territorial integrity that far exceeds the danger of traditional competition with the Iranian state.
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