Despite former President Donald Trump's insistence on achieving peace in Ukraine, significant breakthroughs are unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Witkof's proposal, which suggests that Ukraine's future is to be like that of Berlin after World War II, has been rejected by all parties, including Russia. Russia firmly opposes the presence of Western military forces near its borders.
The current U.S. proposal centers around the idea of a land exchange.
What might Russia lose from such a Solution?
1. Crimea (Highly Unlikely): A Red Line for Russia
It is virtually inconceivable that Russia would relinquish Crimea.
The peninsula is considered an integral part of Russian territory, lost due to a recent historical mistake.
Besides, strategically, Crimea is essential because it houses Russia’s Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol.
2. The Four Regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson
- Russia may need to abandon its ambition of annexing these territories, especially those it has not fully occupied or integrated.
A potential settlement might involve Moscow retaining only the areas currently under its complete control.
This could mean Russia shelving its broader territorial aspirations in exchange for strategic gains such as the formal lifting of Western sanctions and U.S. recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea.
Such a compromise may be acceptable to Russia, at least temporarily.
3. Kursk and Belgorod
It is entirely unacceptable for the Russians to tolerate the presence of Ukrainian forces on their internationally recognized territory or to consider ceding any part of it, regardless of any American incentives.
This constitutes another non-negotiable red line for Russia.
Conclusion
Although the current U.S.-backed proposals may not align with Russia’s strategic objectives, Moscow seems willing to let Ukraine unilaterally reject these offers.
This allows Russia to avoid antagonizing Donald Trump or appearing as the obstructive party in peace efforts.
Besides, it is highly unlikely that Russia would agree to any proposal involving the surrender of territories it has already annexed, particularly Crimea or regions within Kursk and Belgorod, unless it experiences a significant military defeat.
Such a scenario was not plausible before, and does not seem likely under the current U.S. administration.
No comments:
Post a Comment