What do we know?
- It is limited to the U.S. and the Houthis only.
- Israel is not part of this agreement and was not informed about it. When asked about ongoing Houthi attacks on Israel, Trump responded: "I will look into that when it happens."
- The Houthis announced that they will continue supporting Gaza and will not stop their attacks on Israel.
What could have led to this unexpected agreement?
1)Yemen remains the last active part of Iran's "forward defense" strategy. It is the only remaining regional threat to the United States from Iran's allies (according to the U.S. annual threat assessment).
→ Therefore, progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations requires addressing related issues like Yemen, as a goodwill gesture and to remove non-nuclear complications from the talks.
2) Unlike the past deal, any new nuclear agreement should raise concerns among key U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. The Yemeni threat is part of broader Gulf national security concerns and needs to be addressed.
3) A tweet by the U.S. Secretary of Defense referring to the "Houthi-Yemeni attacks and threatening Iran" before the (postponed) fourth round of negotiations suggests this issue is significant for both sides.
Its inclusion will complicate the talks, while resolving it would likely ease the coming negotiations.
4) The U.S. has incurred heavy costs since launching its latest campaign against the Houthis in March. Despite this, it failed to fully dismantle Houthi capabilities. These financial losses do matter for Trump.
--- According to (online) reports, U.S. losses are estimated at around $1 billion, including:
- Use of hundreds of expensive missiles, such as long-range cruise missiles (JASSM), GPS-guided bombs (JSOW), and Tomahawk missiles, each costing $2–4 million.
- Deployment of B-2 bombers from Diego Garcia, a carrier strike group, several fighter jet squadrons, and air defense systems in the U.S. Central Command area.
- Loss of 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones, valued between $30–100 million each, and two fighter jets (one destroyed by friendly fire, the other lost at sea during recovery operations).
- It is limited to the U.S. and the Houthis only.
- Israel is not part of this agreement and was not informed about it. When asked about ongoing Houthi attacks on Israel, Trump responded: "I will look into that when it happens."
- The Houthis announced that they will continue supporting Gaza and will not stop their attacks on Israel.
What could have led to this unexpected agreement?
1)Yemen remains the last active part of Iran's "forward defense" strategy. It is the only remaining regional threat to the United States from Iran's allies (according to the U.S. annual threat assessment).
→ Therefore, progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations requires addressing related issues like Yemen, as a goodwill gesture and to remove non-nuclear complications from the talks.
2) Unlike the past deal, any new nuclear agreement should raise concerns among key U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. The Yemeni threat is part of broader Gulf national security concerns and needs to be addressed.
3) A tweet by the U.S. Secretary of Defense referring to the "Houthi-Yemeni attacks and threatening Iran" before the (postponed) fourth round of negotiations suggests this issue is significant for both sides.
Its inclusion will complicate the talks, while resolving it would likely ease the coming negotiations.
4) The U.S. has incurred heavy costs since launching its latest campaign against the Houthis in March. Despite this, it failed to fully dismantle Houthi capabilities. These financial losses do matter for Trump.
--- According to (online) reports, U.S. losses are estimated at around $1 billion, including:
- Use of hundreds of expensive missiles, such as long-range cruise missiles (JASSM), GPS-guided bombs (JSOW), and Tomahawk missiles, each costing $2–4 million.
- Deployment of B-2 bombers from Diego Garcia, a carrier strike group, several fighter jet squadrons, and air defense systems in the U.S. Central Command area.
- Loss of 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones, valued between $30–100 million each, and two fighter jets (one destroyed by friendly fire, the other lost at sea during recovery operations).
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