In his first appearance after an absence that fueled much speculation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a speech announcing the successful assassination of Ali Larijani. Pledging victory, he stated: “We are determined to achieve victory, and we are on the verge of a moment where we become a global superpower alongside America.”
In this context, despite Israel achieving a series of military milestones in the region, the claim that it is about to become a global superpower is significantly overstated.
Components of a Global Superpower
In the study of International Relations, a distinction is made between the concepts of a “Superpower” and a “Great Power” based on the extent of global influence and the ability to influence events in multiple regions simultaneously. A superpower possesses characteristics that allow it to project its will on the international stage based on the following criteria:
Hard Power: The superior capacity for military, economic, and political coercion.
Global Power Projection: Unlike regional powers, a superpower possesses blue-water navies, long-range strategic bombers, and a network of global military bases that allow it to intervene in any theater of operations worldwide.
Nuclear Deterrence: Possessing a sophisticated, survivable nuclear triad (land, sea, and air) is a fundamental prerequisite for maintaining strategic independence vis-à-vis other major powers.
Economic Hegemony: A superpower typically enjoys one of the world’s highest GDPs, a dominant share of global trade, and a global reserve currency. It often leads to the development of “frontier technologies” such as Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, and aerospace.
Diplomatic Weight: Centrality in international organizations (UN Security Council, IMF, World Bank). A state is considered a superpower if no major global crisis can be resolved without its cooperation.
Alliance Networks: The ability to lead and maintain a network of formal military alliances (such as NATO) and strategic partnerships, which multiplies its latent power.
Furthermore, structural characteristics that prepare a state to become a superpower—most of which Israel lacks—include:
Geography: A large landmass with strategic depth and access to major maritime routes.
Population: A massive, educated, and productive population base to support a giant military and economy.
Resources: Self-sufficiency or guaranteed access to essential minerals, energy (oil/gas), and food.
The Strategic Classification of Israel
Israel is generally classified as a “Regional Power.” While it possesses capabilities that rival those of superpowers in specific technological and military fields, it lacks the foundational scale required for global hegemony:
Geography and Vulnerability: The lack of “strategic depth” constitutes a structural obstacle. Israel’s small landmass and limited population in a hostile environment, combined with its reliance on external support for survival, creates a condition known as “Existential Fragility.”
Military Capabilities: Despite Israel’s ability to strike distant targets (such as Iran or Yemen), it cannot sustain simultaneous and prolonged military operations across multiple continents without the logistical and political support of a true global ally.
Economy and Dependency: Despite its high-tech economy, Israel remains dependent on global supply chains for energy and raw materials. Furthermore, it lacks a “global ideology” capable of mobilizing a broad coalition of states under its leadership.
Conclusion
It is undeniable that Israel possesses qualitative power elements, particularly in intelligence superiority and its ability to operate through complex networks that transcend its geographical borders. However, this power remains subject to a clear ceiling; its excessive reliance on American support—military, political, and economic—prevents its transformation into an independent superpower and renders its global role a function of American power rather than an entity standing on its own.
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