Despite President Trump’s declared intention to resolve the Ukraine issue “on day one” of his return to office, the road to a settlement appears long and filled with obstacles.
In contrast, the diplomatic track with Iran is progressing quietly but steadily. So far, discussions have remained focused on the nuclear program, with no contentious issues being presented for negotiation.
Which track will advance more quickly?
Iran seeks the lifting of sanctions and the opportunity to operate as a normal state, which would allow for development, stability, and prosperity.
Trump, on the other hand, aims for personal achievement. He wants to attract investment into the U.S. economy and establish a degree of stability in the Middle East, which will enable him to shift strategic focus toward containing China while ensuring Israel’s security and regional military superiority.
On Ukraine:
As I mentioned previously, especially during the transition from the Biden to the Trump administration, Russia is not in a hurry to reach a deal regarding Ukraine.
It is also evident that Europe is not in a rush either. European powers are encouraging President Zelensky to reject Trump’s peace initiatives.
Russia aims to capture more territory, knowing that any future settlement will likely formalize its control over the areas it has seized.
Europe, for its part, is interested in draining Russian resources and ensuring it has both a stake and a voice in the eventual resolution of the conflict, particularly given the heavy costs it has already incurred. Ultimately, it is likely that both Russia and the United States will reap strategic benefits.
Conclusion:
It would not be surprising if the Iranian track progresses more rapidly than the Ukrainian one.
Washington and Tehran seem more willing to engage in constructive negotiations—unless Israeli influence and hawkish elements within the U.S. administration impose conditions that could derail the entire process.
No comments:
Post a Comment