Contextual Analysis for Syria and Lebanon (Early 2025)

 Presented at the Middle East Council of Churches Conference, Feb 6, 2025

Leila Nicolas PhD

 

On a general note, if you want to understand the Middle East, it is essential to take into consideration that the region's dynamics are always affected by four key variables:

- The US strategy in the region is the most important variable.

- The Arab-Israeli conflict.

- The Sunni-Shiite conflict.

- The Sunni-Sunni competition.

Syria Context Analysis - Brief

As you all know, Syria has endured a devastating civil war that has fragmented the state, eroded governance, and fueled sectarian violence. After the fall of the Assad regime, many hoped that Syria was heading toward a democratic, stable state.

There is an international support to the transitional government and the new transitional president Ahmad Sharaa. He visited Saudi Arabia, Turkey and was invited to visit France.

However, the new transitional government has solid control only over Damascus and its surroundings. Beyond the capital, the country remains divided into zones of competing authorities.

This analysis examines Syria's current realities and predicts some future scenarios.

1- Security and stability:

- Outside of Damascus, Syria's territory is divided among multiple armed actors, which often operate with impunity, conducting extrajudicial killings and persecuting minorities.

- Northeast Syria is governed by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), supported by the US.

-       After the fall of the regime, Israel occupied the UN buffer zone, Mount Harmon and extended its control about 26 kilometers southwest of Damascus. It has also launched strikes on Syrian military targets, leading Syria to a demilitarized state.

- In the desert: ISIS remnants exploit security vacuums and continue to launch attacks on civilians and the Kurdish–led forces.

2- law and order:

• There are reports of Extrajudicial killings and executions by armed groups, mainly extremist religious factions and foreign fighters.
• Revenge Killings and persecution of minorities, particularly the Alawites and other religious minorities.
• The coastal countryside has seen increased criminal activities, including looting and vandalism.

3- Economy:

Syria continues to struggle with the implications of sanctions, hyperinflation, depreciation of the Lira, and fuel shortages. State employees have not been paid for 3 months now.

Future Scenarios in Post-Assad Syria:

1. The Afghani Scenario (Highly Unlikely)—A single dominant Islamist group, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, seizes control and establishes an authoritarian Islamic regime. However, this is highly unlikely due to Syria's diverse factions and the risk it poses in the region. So, external powers will intervene to prevent it.
2. Inclusive and democratic state (highly unlikely): This scenario faces significant challenges. It needs a comprehensive peace settlement involving all stakeholders and committed and continuous international support, which, based on the previous variables, is unlikely in the meantime.
3. Dividing Syria into several states (unlikely):  Internationally, most stakeholders (except Israel) prefer a unified Syria, even under a fragile government. Regional actors strongly oppose fragmentation. Turkey, Iraq, and Iran fear that a divided Syria could embolden separatist movements within their own borders, especially among the Kurds.
4. The Libyan Scenario (Likely) – Syria could descend into prolonged chaos and factional fighting, similar to Libya after Gaddafi's fall, with rival militias, warlords, and extremist groups vying for control, leading to a fractured and unstable state.
5. The Egyptian Scenario (Likely)—The new transitional government (HTS) takes power; however, its fate will resemble Morsi's rule in Egypt. Internal dissent, economic struggles, and regional opposition may lead to its overthrow. The difference here is that the Egyptian army is powerful, which is not the case in Syria. So, prospects of chaos are extremely high.
6. The Iraqi Scenario (highly Likely): Syria might experience insurgency, sectarian violence, and external meddling, resembling post-2003 Iraq. This scenario could lead to a federal state influenced heavily by foreign powers and local factions dominating each province.

In conclusion,

· Syria's trajectory remains uncertain, with its future closely tied to foreign interventions and competing geopolitical interests.

·       Diplomatic efforts are underway to support a smooth political transition, but the situation remains complex and challenging.

• Syria's economy needs foreign support, international financing for reconstruction and lifting sanctions.

•        Ultimately, Syria's path to stability requires inclusive governance, accountability for atrocities, and dismantling of the war economy.

Lebanon's context analysis- Brief

Lebanon's security and economic future in 2025 faces significant challenges. Here are some key points:

Security Situation

1. The ceasefire with Israel currently holds, but violations are reported daily. Israeli airstrikes and incursions, and Israeli reluctance to withdraw from Lebanese villages, continue to provoke tensions along the border.

2. Hezbollah remains a powerful force in Lebanon despite its losses.

3. The Eastern and Northern borders encounter sporadic clashes between the Lebanese Army and Syrian gunmen, as well as smugglers operating between the two countries.

Economic Challenges

1. High inflation, corruption and mismanagement persist.
2. Reconstruction efforts are slow and primarily led by Hezbollah.

Government Control and Institutions:

1- Political deadlock, power-sharing systems, and financial crises hinder effective governance.

2- The international community continues to monitor and engage with Lebanon to address ongoing challenges.

Prospects

1. Lebanon stands at a crossroads, presenting a serious opportunity for change for the first time since the Taif Agreement.

 However, realizing this potential requires a government capable of implementing significant economic and financial reforms. Unfortunately, Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam has not been able to form a government until now.

2.     Support from the Arab Gulf states is crucial to secure financial assistance and aid in the country's reconstruction efforts.

1. Enforcing Resolution 1701 and disarming Hezbollah will be challenging, particularly if Israel does not withdraw entirely or if it keeps its occupation of several posts or villages in Lebanon.
2. The ongoing Israeli attacks and breaches, coupled with the limited capacity of the Lebanese Army to assert control, highlight the urgent need for national defense reforms.
3. It is essential to empower the Lebanese Army to take full control of the country's borders and ensure that no armed groups operate outside the state's authority.
4. National unity and a commitment to sovereignty and reform are vital for Lebanon's recovery. However, the existing challenges and obstacles to forming a government do not inspire much hope for the future.