Dr. Leila
Nicolas
Even most
optimists couldn't predict that Iran will quickly be a welcomed guest at the
international forums, that the Iranian foreign minister Muhammad Javad Zarif,
hardly settles one week in Tehran, traveling from a European city to another,
where he exchanges smiles and kind words with his European counterparts.
It seems that
the Iranians were not interested in attending Geneva II conference held in
Montreux, as they already knew that the negotiations will not lead to any
solution or even the beginning of a solution. Weeks before the conference, it
was clear - esp. after what had been leaked of the meetings between the US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, and the opposition figures in Istanbul-that the
conference is doomed to fail.
In a place
that’s not very far from where the Geneva II conference is being held, the
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was the star of the World Economic Forum in
Davos, completing his strategy of "charm offensive" aimed to invite western
businessmen to invest in Iran as it has the potential to be in the top ten
economies in the world in the next three decades, as he said.
Highly applauded
by an audience who clearly wanted to hear this speech, Mr. Rouhani said
"constructive engagement" was "one of the pillars" of the
policy of his government, and pledged that his country has no intentions of possessing
nuclear weapons. In addition to the President, the Iranian foreign minister
Zarif had the chance to express his country's views about regional issues
especially about the Syrian crisis.
Even in the Munich
Security Conference, Zarif had the chance to meet John Kerry and Catherine
Ashton, who described the meeting with Zarif as “really interesting”.
In
addition to the non-provocative Iranian speeches, Iran clings to many powerful key
cards that can be used in increasing its regional influence. It also benefits
from a strategic geographical position. The Iranians have influence over many powerful
groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen and primarily Afghanistan. The
most prominent key card carried by the Iranian negotiators is the Afghani one.
The good relationship and high influence of Iran on the Afghani president Hamid
Karzai, gives them the ability to influence the pace of signing the security
agreement between USA and Karzai, who stressed he will not sign before the
presidential elections in April. Many believe that the key to signing the
agreement is in Iranian hands, but Iran does not seem willing to give
Washington free gains.
To
sum it up, it seems that Iran is preparing
grounds for bolstering political, economic cooperation with other countries,
which can lead it to be a regional superpower especially in the wake that the
Arab states are preoccupied by their internal problems, and this is what the
Saudis are afraid of. Sure, the solution should be heading towards mutual
respect, regional cooperation and legitimate competition.
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