Dr. Leila Nicolas
The crisis in Syria is witnessing three
separate paths that may affect the conflict significantly. The first is the
Geneva II conference held in Montreux for negotiations between the Syrian
government and the opposition, with the
participation of thirty different countries while Iran - an effective
participant in the Syrian crisis - was absent. The second was in Davos at
"the world economic forum", where Iran was strongly present , and
despite Syria was absent as a participant, it was strongly available as a
crisis. And the third path is what the Syrian government describes as
"counterinsurgency" in the Syrian territories.
- As for the first path, the high-pitched and sharp tone speeches in Montreux of both Syrian delegations, plus those of U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu , and
the Saudi foreign minister Saoud el Faissal didn't indicate a good start to
finding solutions to the conflict. Supporters of both Syrian regime and
opposition declared "media victory" in the first day of Montreux
conference as they exchanged accusations of supporting terrorism.
It
seems that the Iranians were aware of the shallow results of the Geneva II
conference. The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, manifested early his
pessimism about the conference results. This may reveal why the Iranians were
not ready to accept preconditions to attend Geneva II. It was obvious that the
conference will not lead to peaceful solution, especially as the "Syrian
National Coalition" witnessed a great collapse after US ambassador Richard
Ford forced them to go to Geneva. Besides lack of broad popular support inside
Syria from both activists and fighters, the "coalition" legitimacy
has always flowed from its foreign patrons, and a main bloc quits the Coalition
over Geneva conference participation.
- The second Path which was lead by Iranian
foreign minister Muhammad Javad Zarif at the "World Economic Forum"
in Davos , where he met ministers from Arab countries ,Turkey and European
countries to discuss the Syrian crisis in both closed and open sessions. The
Iranian minister in an open session moderated by Al-Arabia News Channel called
for withdrawal of all foreign fighters from Syrian territories. Another closed
session moderated by the Former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan,
called for a brainstorming to find diverse ways to resolve the Syrian crisis.
Annan - who started a visit to Iran in 26 January- said that Iran
had an essential role to play in guaranteeing stability in the Middle East and
urged U.S. lawmakers to give a diplomatic detente with Tehran a chance.
So it seems that the celebrations are in a place,
and the wedding elsewhere. While the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki moon
set very closed and strict agenda for negotiators in Montreux, Kofi Annan seems
to open doors for diverse solutions which can lead to common ground. Annan
seems more realistic when he urges US " to give diplomacy,
negotiation and peace a chance", and launches a delegation of Elders group
to "exchange ideas with the Iranian leadership about peaceful ways of
addressing conflict and healing sectarian divisions in the region".
- The third Path, is the military one, where
there is a race inside Syria between the diplomatic paths and the military one.
It seems that both parties and their international supporters want to change
the military balance before the Syrian presidential elections next June.
President Bashar El Assad knows it clearly that his victorious
counterinsurgency lead him to participate in Geneva II conference, as the
balance of power shifted dramatically between June 2012 and January 2014.
The US and its proxies want Assad to refrain
from running the Presidential elections, and they are sure that he will not do
unless they shift the military balance on the ground. However, it is turning to
be a very dangerous game, as the Al Qaeda activists are controlling most the opposition
areas, after the dissolution of the "free Syrian Army" supported by
the west.
So, US is playing a very dangerous game in
Syria i.e. the opposition alliance with the devil will not go in favor of the
Syrian opposition at the medium and long term. And if they don't accept the
results now, they will regret it tomorrow as they will be forced to accept much
more less than what they are offered today.
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